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The Result of the Falling US Dollar
Like a ticking time bomb, the falling dollar has grabbed the attention of Japan and West Germany, forcing them to consider adopting economic polices the United States advocates. The U.S. government wants the dollar to fall because as the dollar declines in value against the yen and Deutsche mark, U.S. good becomes cheaper. U.S. companies then sell more at home and abroad, and U.S. trade deficit declines. Cries for trade protection abate, and the global free-trade system is preserved.
Then, the cheaper dollar makes it cheaper for many foreign investors to snap up U.S. stocks. That prompts heavy buying from abroad—especially from Japan. Also, if the trade picture is improving, that means U.S. companies eventually will be more competitive. Consequently, many investors are buying shares of export-oriented U.S. companies in anticipation of better profits in the next year or so. But that is a rather faddish notion right now; if corporate earnings are disappointing in interest rates, the stock market rally could stall.
Improving U.S. competitiveness means a decline in another’s competitiveness.
Japan and West Germany are verging on recession. Their export-oriented economies are facing major problems. Japan is worried about the damage the strong yen will do to Japanese trade. West Germany is also worried. Share prices in Frankfurt plummeted this past week. Bonn is thought to be considering a cut in interest rates to boost its economy.
Could the falling dollar get out of hand? If the dollar falls too far, investors might lose confidence in U.S. investments—especially the government bond market. The money to finance the federal budget and trade deficits could migrate elsewhere. Inflation could flare up, too, since Japanese and German manufacturers will eventually pass along price hikes—and U.S. companies might follow suit to increase their profit margins. The U.S. federal Reserve then might need to step in and stabilize the dollar by raising interest rates. And higher interest rates could cause the U.S. economy to slow down and end the Wall Street Rally.
Worried about these side effects, Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcher has said the dollar has fallen far enough. What is the equilibrium level? Probably near where it is or slightly lower. It all depends on when the U.S. trade deficit turns around or if investors defect from U.S. Treasury Bonds. “It requires a good deal of political patience on the part of the U.S. Congress,” says Dr. Cline, “And there must be an expectation of patience on the part of private investors. The chance are relatively good that we will avoid an investor break or panic.”
1. What is the main idea of this passage?
[A] The impression of the falling U.S. dollar.
[B] The result of the U.S. falling dollar.
[C] The side effect of U.S. falling dollar.
[D] Japan and West Germany are worried about U.S. falling dollar.
2. What does the word “rally” mean.
[A] prosperity. [B] decline. [C] richness. [D] import.
3. Why are Japan and West Germany worried about the falling dollar?
[A] Because the falling dollar may cause inflation in their countries.
[B] Because it may force them to sell a lot of U.S, stocks.
[C] Because it may do damage to their trade.
[D] Because it may make Japanese company less competitive.
4. If dollar-falling got out of hand, and the U.S. Federal Reserve might step in , what would happen?
[A] The prosperity of the U.S. economy would disappear.
[B] The U.S. economy might face serious problems.
[C] Investors might lose confidence in U.S. investments.
[D] Inflation could flare up.
答案详解：
1. B. 美元下跌的结果。全篇文章都讲的美元下跌的后果。
A. 美元下跌的印象。 C. 美元下跌的副作用，均不对。 因为还讲述了有利的一面。 D. 日本的、西德担忧美元下跌，这只是其中的部分内容。
2. A. 繁荣。第五段“美元下跌是否会失控：如果美元下跌过多，投资者可能会失去对美国投资的信心，特别是对美国的债务市场。对联邦政府预算和贸易赤字提供的资金可能移向其它市场，因为日本和西德厂商最终会将上涨的价格转嫁出去，美国公司也可能这么做，以提高其市场利润幅度，从而使通货膨胀再次爆发。美国联邦储备委员会这时可能需要介入，提高利率来稳定美元。而较高利率会导致美国经济减慢，华尔街的繁荣行将结束。”
B. 衰退。 C. 富有。 D. 出口，都不是rally之含义。
3. C. 因为下跌对他们贸易有损害。第三段“改善美国竞争力意味着其他国家的竞争力下降。”第四段，“日本和西德正濒于经济衰退的边缘。其出口导向的经济正在面临严重问题。日本担心由于日元坚挺而给其贸易带来损害，西德也在发愁。上个星期，法兰克福股市价格暴跌。据说，波恩已在考虑降低利率以振兴其经济。
A. 美元下跌会使他们国家通货膨胀。没有正式提到, 内涵只是贸易带来的其他具体问题。 B. 它可能迫使他们卖掉许多美国股票。 D. 这可能使日本竞争力下降。问题是提出两国，不单单是日本。
4. A. 美国经济繁荣消失，见第2题答案A的注释。
B. 美国经济可能面临严重问题。太笼统。 C. 投资者可能对在美国投资失去信心。这不是美国联邦储备委员会介入后发生之事。 D. 通货膨胀全面爆发。这也是介入之后果。
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